The future development trends of the used car market
Release time：
2025-06-11 09:39
Source：
1. Sustained Growth in Transaction Volume
Policy dividends, such as the "trade - in for new" policy and the nationwide cancellation of migration restrictions for National V emission standard used cars, continue to stimulate used car transactions and circulation.
Consumer acceptance of used cars is increasing, with young groups and middle - aged consumers becoming the main forces, forming a multi - level demand market. It is expected that China's used car transaction volume will exceed the 20 million threshold for the first time in 2025. If the growth rate of over 6.5% in 2024 continues, it is expected to reach 21 million units. The market scale will continue to expand, and there is still significant growth potential in the future.
2. Fluctuating Downward Prices
With large domestic new car production capacity and an increase in ownership stimulated by policies, the output of used cars will also increase, leading to a long - term downward trend in prices.
The continuous price war in the new car market affects used car prices. Benchmark models of some new energy brands entering the market will intensify competition in the same segment. Coupled with factors such as monthly used car turnover and seasonal consumption peaks and troughs, used car prices will show seasonal fluctuations.
3. Technological Innovation Driving Transformation
The application of AI and big data will become more widespread, enhancing used car valuation, quality inspection, and transaction transparency, and promoting the market to develop towards higher efficiency, fairness, and transparency.
With the maturity of AIGC technology, it will become mainstream for dealers to obtain customers through short videos and live broadcasts, such as using AI to generate scripts, digital human live broadcasts, and AIGC to describe vehicle conditions.
The testing technology for new energy used cars is continuously innovating and improving, and relevant group standards have been approved, making the auction of electric used cars more standardized.
4. Competition Shifting to Specialized Division of Labor
The used car industry has entered a new era of digitalization, and industry reshuffling will continue, possibly intensifying competition. Homogeneous competition relying on information asymmetry to obtain huge profits is no longer applicable. The profit margins of car dealers are becoming transparent, and those with strong turnover capabilities will have more advantages.
Car dealers who understand specialized division of labor, actively use platforms, have the ability to apply AI tools, obtain customers through social media, and embrace business digitization will stand out in the competition.
5. Sustained Growth in Exports
In recent years, China's used car exports have shown explosive growth, and the export industry chain has been continuously improved. In the future, the direction of used car exports will gradually shift to the export of real used cars with mileage. Emerging market countries in Africa, Central Asia, and other regions have strong demand for used cars, providing more opportunities for domestic used car exports.
6. Rise of New Energy Used Cars
The rapid popularization of new energy vehicles (NEVs), with a penetration rate of 40.9% in 2024, has driven a 16.8% year - on - year increase in the supply of new energy used cars. Used NEVs with a vehicle age of within 3 years account for 46.4%. The first - year residual value rate of new force brands such as Huawei HarmonyOS Smart Mobility and Xiaomi Auto has exceeded 80%.
The export of new energy used cars has become a new growth point, with a year - on - year increase of 120% in 2024.
7. Closer Industrial Collaboration
Enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the automotive industry chain will cooperate deeply. OEMs will accelerate the layout of certified used car businesses, the after - sales service system will be continuously improved, and logistics enterprises will open "used car special trains" to reduce cross - regional transportation costs, promoting the formation of a national large - circulation pattern.
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